On September 13, the new Chief Minister of Gujarat Bhupendra Patel took the oath. Along with this, before 2022, BJP played bets on new leadership in two states. After the change of CM in Gujarat after Uttarakhand, Karnataka, it is discussed that there will be changes in two other BJP ruled states. The reasons for the change in leadership vary from state to state and politicians, but the message of the BJP's central leadership is clear. Right now this change is being done with the aim of controlling anti-incumbency. Due to the lack of proper management during the Corona period, all the state governments had suffered a lot.
At present, the BJP has its own or coalition government in 16 states of the country. Before the assembly elections are to be held in 2022, BJP does not want that there should be resentment towards the leadership among the people. Till now all the chief ministers of BJP have been made according to the choice of the central leadership i.e. Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. Gujarat's new CM Bhupendra Patel and Karnataka CM Vasavaraj Bommai have also got the benefit of being close to Amit Shah. Due to this, he remained ahead of other contenders for the post of CM. It is believed that through this change, the high command is trying to curb the factionalism of the leaders.
In Gujarat also, there was a rift between former CM Vijay Rupani and BJP state president CR Patil. If we talk about Karnataka, the tussle between former CM BS Yediyurappa and party's organization general secretary BL Santhosh was well known. In Uttarakhand, the leaders who came from the Congress to the BJP always raise their voices of dissatisfaction. At present, the general secretary of the party is BL Santhosh.
In the Bharatiya Janata Party, the post of Organization General Secretary is the second most powerful post after the President. The buzz is that BL Santhosh advocates change of leadership in all those states where the image of the party is weakened due to CM or CM does not control the government.
High command culture has started in the Bharatiya Janata Party too. The likes and dislikes of the high command in the BJP matter because of Narendra Modi's national acceptance. It is being told that caste equations and closeness to the central leadership are an important factor in their election, but the party is giving the task before the new CM is put on the chair. The high command is clearly telling them that they will either have to take all measures to deal with anti-incumbency or they will have to be ready to step down. Apart from this, he will also have to stay away from controversial statements and decisions.
The question is, what will be the difference in the results of changing the CM just before the election. Political analysts believe that the stature of BJP's satraps in the states is very small in front of PM Modi. Be it Lok Sabha elections or state elections, BJP fights every election on the face of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Since 2014, the voters of BJP also vote according to the policies of Narendra Modi rather than the local leadership, so the change of leadership in the states is not very important according to the vote. The purpose of the change is to reduce the factionalism of the local leadership while maintaining caste balance. At the same time, the atmosphere has to be created according to the central leadership.
According to political analyst Yogesh Mishra, the Bharatiya Janata Party changed the CM in Uttarakhand, because he was not able to perform. He was unable to win public trust. Rupani's performance was not of the level on which he could go to the polls. Elections will be fought in the name of Amit Shah and Narendra Modi. Rupani's name was not unknown in Gujarat. The public had assessed his accounts, which could have caused problems in the election. Now people will have faith in the new Chief Minister. After this, the coin of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah can run.
Narendra Modi and Amit Shah's BJP have experimented with the Chief Minister of five years. The government which lasted for 5 years in Jharkhand and Rajasthan did not come again. A mixed government came in Haryana. So now the party is using less than five years. BJP wants to tell its voters that it can change the leadership at the will of the people. Although the political analyst, Dr. Dilip Agnihotri does not consider the change of CM face in the states against stability. Dr. Agnihotri believes that BJP is the least CM change party. Continuity in the post of CM was taken care of during the tenure of Narendra Modi.
Yogesh Mishra believes that nothing can be said about the elections to be held in 2024. But in the elections of 2024, the victory or defeat in the states will not make any difference. At that time, BJP will get votes according to the policies and work of Narendra Modi. Narendra Modi has taken BJP from the Hindi belt to the pan India level. Its effect will be visible in the Lok Sabha elections. Dr. Dilip Agnihotri says that before the first assembly elections, CM candidates were not changed in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, and BJP was defeated. Despite this, Narendra Modi got huge support in these states in the Lok Sabha elections.
It is not just that CMs have been changing in BJP ruled states. Even when the Congress was at its peak in the entire country, the chief ministers kept changing according to the wishes of the high command in the states. In Uttarakhand, every party continuously changed the CM.
There was no chief minister in Uttarakhand except Congress's ND Tiwari who completed his five-year term. In Gujarat also Madhav Singh Solanki and Narendra Modi proved to be durable CMs. After Sampurnanand (1954-60) in Uttar Pradesh, no Congress chief minister completed a five-year term. After Shri Krishna Singh, the first Chief Minister of Bihar, no Congress CM got a chance to rule for five years. Whereas till 1989 there were 19 Congress chief ministers in Bihar. After Devraj Urs (1972-77) in Karnataka, no CM got time to run the government for five years. Arjun Singh and Digvijay Singh were the only Congressmen in Madhya Pradesh who completed their term.
Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh have a better track record in changing CMs. These states have been ruled by regional parties. The specialty of family-based regional parties is that their leaders are universally accepted in their own party, as the Gandhi family in Congress. Karunanidhi, Jayalalithaa, Lalu Prasad, Nitish Kumar, Jagan Mohan Reddy, K. Chandrashekhar Rao, and Mamata Banerjee are the names whose power has been permanent in their states. Apart from this, the CM of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in Kerala is also away from political upheaval. In West Bengal, the government of Jyoti Basu and Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee also ran without a reshuffle.
