As expected, the Taliban have completely taken control of Afghanistan. Its impact will not only be on the world and South Asia but also on Pakistan. Pakistan is an open supporter of the Taliban. ISI has been funding the Taliban. There are also a large number of Pakistani fighters in the Taliban. As soon as the Taliban took control of Kabul, Pakistan has expressed happiness.
Hardline Islamist parties have a solid base in Pakistan and activists of many parties are even ready to take the path of violence to implement their agenda. Even though these political parties may not have the numbers, but their influence in the 'Islamic country' is much more than the numbers. The influence of parties like Tehreek-e-Labbaik or RasoolAllah, Jamaat-e-Islami, and Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam is increasing significantly. Last year itself, Tehreek-e-Labbaik activists blocked the way to Islamabad.
And not just political parties, there are also many Islamist terrorist groups in Pakistan like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, and Islamic State in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are organizations whose activities are not hidden from anyone.
The victory of the Taliban means that now the influence of America and America's new friend India on Afghanistan will decrease and the influence of Pakistan will increase. The investments that India was making in Afghanistan will also stop. Increasing influence on Afghanistan will give Pakistan a strategic edge in the region. Pakistan always had the fear that India was encircling it from two sides. One from Afghanistan and the other from India. This fear of Pakistan will end now.
The success of the Taliban in Afghanistan will have a very negative impact on the society of Pakistan. Organizations that use slogans like the Islamic government or Nizam-e-Mohammediya in Pakistan, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, will be encouraged. Not only will their spirits increase, but they will also get support from the Afghan Taliban.
Afghanistan is such a big country that it is not in the power of any one group to control it completely. There will be many places in Afghanistan where armed groups can operate their bases. These armed groups can become a security risk not only for China and India but also for Pakistan itself.
In a way, the Taliban's victory in Afghanistan is a mixed blessing for Pakistan. On the one hand, its influence in global politics is increasing, it is gaining a strategic edge, while on the other hand, it is in danger of falling under the shadow of its own Taliban. The Taliban in Afghanistan is beneficial for Pakistan's political security, but it is dangerous for its own society and internal security. In the future, the Taliban can prove to be harmful to Pakistan.
The zeal to implement Islamic rule (Shariah law) will increase and this will worsen the condition of democracy and civil rights in Pakistan. In a way, the Taliban can become an issue for Pakistan as well.
Many analysts say that this innings of the Taliban will be different and better than their innings in 1996. The biggest thing is that the US has given legitimacy to the Taliban by negotiating with the Taliban. Under this agreement, in a way, America has handed back Afghanistan to the Taliban. Whenever US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is asked whether the US will recognize the Taliban government, he has never explicitly denied it.
The vast change for the Taliban is that this time they can get international recognition, which they did not get the first time. The Taliban are also giving evidence that they are learning. They are making better use of media and social media and trying to build their image. The Taliban have realized that they have to improve their image if they want to be successful in Afghanistan.
Still, the point is that fundamentally they won't change. They have won the war and they have the right to impose their culture, their way of Islam, and themselves on Afghanistan. He will definitely take such steps which will show that now there is a new power in Afghanistan. They will do the same to convey the message. Afghanistan will have a new system and new values. Very soon the Taliban will show their true colors.
Taliban can be a big threat to India, as Afghanistan can become a safe haven for anti-India terrorist groups. Now India will have to maintain close and cautious relations with the Taliban.
All I would say is that the Indian government should now keep its Afghanistan policy separate and independent from US foreign policy. India should try to put its interests in Afghanistan first and America's interests later.
Everyone knows that the record of the Taliban in human rights is very poor. It is feared that the rights of women, religious minorities, especially Shias, will be killed under the Taliban. Girls are forbidden to go to school where the Taliban are in control. Women have been removed from jobs where they have to talk to people.
Despite this, the Taliban are expected to allow women to work in major cities such as Kabul and Jalalabad, to show that they respect women. The Taliban have also said that 'we will respect the rights of women in Islam'. That is, they are saying that they will give rights to women according to the Islamic Shariat, it is clear that whatever public role women will have, they will end.
If the Islamist groups of Pakistan start raising the demand for the same 'Islamist rule' in Pakistan, will the society of Pakistan be able to accept it? Pakistan may have ignored these questions for now in the joy of the victory of the Taliban, but one day they will definitely stand in front of it.
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