Military historians sometimes refer to the hinge of a battle or a campaign. That is a point at which some specific incident leads to a decisive swing in one direction or the other. Unfortunately, predicting the occurrence and outcome of a hinge is difficult.
2019 could have multiple economic hinges that swing the global economy one way or another. Indians will be focussed on the General Elections, which will take place sometime in April or May. A new government taking charge of the world's sixth-biggest economy (or third-largest economy in purchasing power parity terms) could significantly alter the prospects for global growth. There is also Brexit – a slow moving train wreck that has been a work-in-progress since late 2016. The United Kingdom is a large economy and a major financial center. What sort of ties it maintains with the world's largest trading bloc, the European Union will definitely affect global growth.
There are also sundry hinges created, if that is the right word, by the unpredictable actions of United States President Donald Trump. This includes the trade war with China, US sanctions against Iran, and recent demands that the US Congress fund an absurd artifact – a wall on its border with Mexico. The outcomes of these will also definitely affect economic growth.
The US president is now the subject of 17 different ongoing investigations. These include examinations of his personal finances, allegations of campaign violations, allegations of multiple tax frauds – a veritable smorgasbord of unpleasant crimes. The legal ramifications of this are hard to work out. This is unprecedented. No US president has faced such a wide-ranging set of charges, including some which carry jail sentences. Whether Congress will allow him to be impeached, whether sufficient evidence can be brought for him to face jail – these are all imponderables.
Some of those investigations have already resulted in guilty pleas and jail sentences for close associates of Trump. At some stage – and that stage may not be too far away – Trump himself will surely face charges in some investigation or another.
