According to reports, if 80 percent of production in the country is halted by a 21-day nationwide lockdown, the Indian economy will suffer a loss of about 35 to 40 thousand crores every day. In this way, the economy will suffer a total loss of 6.3 to 7.2 lakh crores. This figure is presented by CARE Ratings. This calculation is based on actual GDP of 140-150 lakh crore for FY 2020.
The report says that assuming 300 working days in a year, the daily output comes to 40 to 50 thousand crore rupees. On this basis, the fourth-quarter growth will not be negative but may fall from 1.5 to 2.5 percent. Earlier, the economy was expected to grow by 1.74 lakh crore in the fourth quarter with 4.7 percent.
The report said, “It is estimated that 80 percent of production can stop and 20 percent economy will continue (which includes essential facilities and agriculture). With this, 35 to 40 thousand crore rupees can be lost every day from GDP.”
The report further stated, ‘The 21-day nationwide lockdown has 14 days to FY 2021. In this way, if both are considered 18 working days in the financial year, then there will be a total loss of 6.3 to 7.2 lakh crores during this period. Two-thirds of this loss will go into the first quarter of the next financial year. This will result in a loss of 4.2 to 4.8 lakh crores to GDP in FY 2021. The report cautioned that it could also see negative growth in the first quarter of the next financial year.’
Significantly, the central government has announced a 21-day lockdown across the country with a view to stopping the coronavirus from spreading its infection chain. This lockdown has started from Wednesday. Due to this, everything except the essential services has come to a standstill.