The discussion is again in full swing regarding the fears of the third wave of Corona in the country. Most scientists believe that there is no possibility of a third wave yet. Some are saying that it may come in October. However, past trends and changing conditions indicate that the risk of a third wave tax is minimal. Scientists are giving two main reasons for this.
First reason- 35% of the country's population has received the first dose of the vaccine. In the next two months, the number of people applying a single dose may cross 50%.
Second reason– Antibodies have been found in 65% of the country's population. Antibodies are made only after infection. This is called herd immunity. That is, the risk of re-infection to such a large population is negligible for the next six months. Because, antibodies stay in the body for an average of six months.
The total number of active patients in the country is now only 3.10 lakh
5 months ago on March 19, the number of active patients in the country had crossed 3 lakh. Now again it seems to be less than 3 lakhs.
Also the average of active patients is now only 0.98%
That is, the situation as it was in the initial phase of Corona, it is the same now. The pace of infection increased only after March 2020.
Now 19 patients are being found in every 1,000 tests in the country
The infection rate (weekly) is now 1.9%, the lowest in 60 days. In Kerala and 4 northeastern states, the rate is more than 10%.
The rate of those who defeated Corona reached 97.7%
A total of 3.25 crore patients were registered during the 21-month corona period, out of which 3.18 crore have been cured. 4.35 lakh have not survived.
WHO Chief Scientist Dr. Soumya Swaminathan made a statement of hope on Tuesday. Said- 'The rate of spread of infection in India is now low or medium. This can be called endemic, that is, the spatial level. It differs from the epidemic, that is, the level of the epidemic.
Except for Kerala, Maharashtra, Assam, the risk is less in all other states because antibodies are more
The serosurvey conducted by ICMR revealed that 65% of the country's population has antibodies. It is highest in Madhya Pradesh, 79% in Rajasthan, 76.2% in Bihar, 75.9% in Gujarat, 75.3% in Chhattisgarh and 74.6% in Chhattisgarh. Accordingly, the risk of third wave in these states is less.
On the other hand, antibodies were found in 44.4% in Kerala, 50.3% in Assam and 58% in Maharashtra. That is, the number of people who have survived the infection so far in these states is more than in other states. Therefore, if the vaccination does not pick up pace in these, then the risk of infection will remain.
National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization Prof. Narendra Arora, Chairman, 45.61 crore people in the country have received the first dose, 13.28 crore have taken both doses. This population is now out of danger of serious infection of Corona. Even if they get infected, very few people will need the hospital.
Arora also says that people who have antibodies are also less at risk. However, people who have neither been vaccinated nor have antibodies may be the first to become infected. But… still, the biggest weapon to stop the third wave is precaution… that is, masks and social distancing.
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