Corona Crisis: The Biggest Decline in the Economy in the Last 40 years

GDP growth has been -7.3% in the financial year 2020-21. It was 4.2% in 2019-20. In terms of decline, this is the worst phase of the economy in the last 40 years.
Image Credit:Business Standard
Image Credit:Business Standard

GDP growth has been -7.3% in the financial year 2020-21. It was 4.2% in 2019-20. In terms of decline, this is the worst phase of the economy in the last 40 years. The earlier growth rate was recorded at -5.2% in 1979-80. The reason for this was drought. Apart from this, the prices of crude oil had also doubled. At that time the Janata Party government was at the center, which fell after 33 months.

However, the growth rate of GDP has been 1.6% from January to March i.e. in the fourth quarter. GDP declined in the first two quarters in 4 quarters in FY 2020-21, while it saw an increase in the last two quarters. This is the second consecutive quarter in which the economy of the country has seen growth despite Corona. GVA has recorded a decline of 6.2% over the whole year.

Size estimate of 38.96 lakh crore in the fourth quarter

Economy size is estimated at Rs 38.96 lakh crore in the fourth quarter. It was Rs 38.33 lakh crore at the same time a year ago. On an annual basis, it has been estimated at Rs 135.13 lakh crore, as compared to Rs 145.6 lakh crore a year ago.

Agricultural growth in GDP in the fourth quarter was 4.3%. It was 4.3% at the same time a year ago. The construction sector grew by 14.5% in the fourth quarter. The growth rate of electricity, water, gas, and other utilities has been 9.1%. It was 7.3% a year ago.

Fall in Economy below estimate

The government, which released the advance estimate for the second time in February, said that the economy could decline by 8% annually. However, there is a slower decline than that estimate. A 4% gain was seen in FY 2019-20.

However, the impact of the second wave of Corona will be seen between the first quarter of this current financial year i.e. April to June, as the states have imposed a second lockdown in late March and April.

The fiscal deficit was lower than the government's estimate

On the other hand, the fiscal deficit during FY 2020-21 was lower than the government's estimate. The Finance Ministry released the data on the fiscal deficit on Monday. The fiscal deficit under this is Rs 18,21,461 crore. This is 9.3% of the country's GDP, which is lower than the Finance Ministry's estimated 9.5%.

The fiscal deficit stood at 4.6% of GDP during the financial year 2019-20. Releasing the Central Government's revenue-spending data for 2020-21, the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) reported a revenue deficit (revenue deficit) of 7.42% at the end of the financial year.

The economy has been falling continuously since 2016-17

The GDP growth rate in 2019-20 was 4.2%. It was the lowest growth in 11 years. Earlier it was 6.12% in 2018-19, 7.04% in 2017-18 and 8.26% in 2016-17. The main reasons for this decline were 2016, demonetization in November, and then GST from 2017, July.

The economy was open in January, February

Experts believe that the economy opened up completely in January and February. The lockdown was removed from the states. Therefore, it can be seen increasing during this time. This is also because the Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in January, February, March has also been good, which was above Rs 1 lakh crore. October-December 2020 quarter was 0.4%. At that time, it was estimated that the country's GDP may fall by 8% between the business year 2020-21 i.e. April 2020 to March 2021.

The economy comes out of a technical recession

The country's economy had come out of the technical downturn as it recorded growth in the third quarter. Earlier, there was a decline in GDP for two consecutive quarters. Due to the tremors caused by the epidemic, the GDP declined by 23.9% in the first quarter ie, the April-June quarter. Thereafter, in the second quarter i.e. July-September, there was a 7.5% decline in GDP.

Who is responsible for GDP fluctuations

There are four important engines for reducing or increasing GDP. The first is you and me. The amount you spend contributes to our economy. The second is the business growth of the private sector. It contributes 32% to GDP. The third is government spending.

This means how much the government is spending to produce goods and services. It contributes 11% to GDP. And fourth is note demand. For this, India's total exports are subtracted from total imports. Since India has more imports than exports, its impact is negative on GPD.

What is GDP?

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country in a given year. GDP is the largest measure of a country's economic development. Higher GDP means that the country's economic growth is increasing, the economy is creating more jobs. This also shows which sector is developing and which sector is lagging economically.

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