The United Nations (UN) has estimated that India's GDP growth rate could be close to 7.5% in this current calendar year. Calendar year means between January to December. However, between April 2021 and March 2022, GDP is estimated by most brokerage houses to be 10%. But this estimate of UN is the lowest.
The UN said that it could grow by 0.2% of GDP compared to what it had estimated in January. However, the outlook of the country for the whole year can be quite volatile. Due to the growing impact of Covid-19 and the delay in vaccination programs, most countries face challenges regarding recovery. Meanwhile, the rating agency CRISIL on Tuesday said that between April and March, the country's GDP growth rate could be between 8.2 to 9.8%. Earlier it had projected a growth rate of 11%.
CRISIL said that the growth rate of GDP can go up to 8.2% in the bad climate of Covid, while it can be 9.8% in good environment. On the other hand, Moody's has cut the estimate. It has stated that the growth rate of GDP can be 9.3% during the financial year 2022 i.e. April 2021 to March 2022. Earlier it had projected a growth of 13.7%. Moody's estimates were the highest.
Moody's said on Wednesday that it had estimated 13.7% in February when the case of Kovid was on full recovery. But it has changed since the increased impact since March.
Goldman Sachs estimates that it could remain between 11.1% between 2021 March to 2022 April. Whereas earlier it was estimated at 11.7%. Similarly Nomura had earlier projected a growth rate of 13.5%, which has now been reduced to 12.6%. JP Morgan reduced the estimate to 13% to 11%, while UBS reduced the estimate to 11.5% to 10%. The city had projected a growth rate of 12.5%. This has brought it down to 12%.
Apart from these, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has predicted a growth rate of 10.5% in this current financial year. Whereas IMF ie 12.5% and World Bank has predicted growth rate of 10.1%. From all these estimates, it seems that despite this deadly spread of Corona, the country's growth rate can be more than 10% in this financial year.
The country's GDP was already in decline before Corona. Its growth rate was 8.3% in FY 2016-17, from 6.8 in 2017-2018 and 6.5% in 2018-2019. It was 4% in 2019-20. Between 2020 April to 2021 March, the economy was predicted to fall by 8%.
The incidence of frequent lockdown of cities in the country is increasing. At the same time, the effect of corona is also happening fast. India is among the worst in the world in new cases. Nearly 3.5 lakh new cases are coming to Corona every day. While 2.25 lakh deaths have been done. Though the Modi government is avoiding nationwide lockdown so far, Corona's team has advocated a complete lockdown.
Several states and cities in the country including Mumbai, Delhi, Bihar are already in lockdown. States such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka account for 20% of the total active cases of the corona. However, till a few weeks ago it was up to 60%. Goldman Sachs said that the lockdown is still light this year compared to last year. Its effect is not as much as it was the last time.
A total of 7.5 million people have been unemployed in April in the country. According to CMIE data, employment has been badly affected in April and something similar may also be seen in May. Cases of new employment are also declining. Goldman Sachs said that most of the indicators are saying that the effect of this lockdown and corona will be seen on the country's GDP.
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